US Trade Tariff - Three Deals in 2 Days

Here are the key tariff‐agreement dates between the United States and other countries from May 23 to July 23, 2025:

• United States – China: On May 12, 2025, the U.S. and China agreed to lower their “reciprocal” tariff rates from as high as 125% down to 10% for a 90‑day truce, rolling back recent escalations imposed under Section 301 and the IEEPA framework (China Briefing).

• United States – Vietnam: On July 2, 2025, President Trump announced an initial framework agreement to reduce U.S. tariffs on Vietnamese goods and to open Vietnam’s market to U.S. agricultural exports, including commitments on rules‐of‐origin and transshipment controls (Politico, Schulz Trade Law).

• United States – Indonesia: On July 22, 2025, the White House issued a Fact Sheet announcing a landmark Reciprocal Trade Deal under which Indonesia will eliminate over 99% of its tariff lines on U.S. exports, and the U.S. will charge Indonesia a 19% reciprocal tariff (The White House).

• United States – Philippines: Also on July 22, 2025, a U.S.–Philippines trade agreement was announced, imposing a 19% tariff on Philippine exports to the U.S. while the Philippines lifts tariffs on U.S. goods to zero (Politico).

• United States – Japan: On July 23, 2025, the U.S. and Japan finalized a deal setting a 15% tariff on Japanese imports (down from the threatened 25%), with no quotas on autos and expanded market access for U.S. agricultural products (reuters.com).

When President Trump secured the last three major trade agreements in just one week, I expected more fireworks from the NASDAQ. Instead, markets have barely budged, even as deals with Indonesia, the Philippines, and Japan offer potential insight into the endgame for US and world economies.

The headline figures look remarkably restrained compared to initial fears. Japan's 15% tariff represents a significant climb-down from the threatened 25%, while the Indonesia and Philippines deals at 19% provide clarity where uncertainty previously reigned.

What strikes me most is the emerging pattern: rather than digging in for protracted trade wars, major economies are cutting deals quickly.

The NASDAQ's muted response is surprising, presumably because US companies face genuine cost pressures. The market lacks certainty about whether these are entirely good deals for corporate America.

Yet I think this caution misses the bigger picture. Certainty, even on unfavourable terms, will benefit market confidence far more than the previous months of unknown status.

For me, these developments are quite positive despite the market's indifference. We are seeing negotiated settlements rather than escalating trade wars, and the tariff levels came in lower than many feared. The steady NASDAQ rise over recent months suggests underlying strength remains intact.

As a result, I am maintaining a Long Position on the Nasdaq100 at 23085